Blog

MIRI TGT Blog

Opinions and updates from the MIRI Technical Governance Team about our work.

Inference Scaling and the Future of Training Compute Thresholds

Aug 5, 2026

This TGT Fellowship project investigates various trends in inference scaling and their impact on future AI governance.

Warning Shots for AI Existential Risk: Will society answer the wake-up calls it receives?

Aug 4, 2026

In this blog post, we describe a framework for predicting whether "warning shots" will motivate an effective response, and apply this framework to various candidate warning shots.

De-risking Interconnect Limits for AI Verification

Jul 30, 2026

This SPAR project investigates interconnect limits, a method of verifying that AI chips are not conducting training.

Podcast: International Coordination and the AI Off-Switch with Aaron Scher

Jul 20, 2026

This podcast discusses AI risks and how humanity should respond, covering some of TGT’s previous work.

On TEEs for Privacy-Preserving Monitoring in AI Governance

Jun 18, 2026

This TGT Fellowship project investigates how trusted execution environments (TEEs) could be used for verification in AI governance.

Suppressing Side Channels in an Untrusted Data Center via Retrofitted Defenses

May 29, 2026

A survey of potential side-channels in data centers and retofittable defenses.

Catching illicit distributed training operations during an AI pause

Apr 9, 2026

Could covert distributed training undermine international restrictions on AI development?

Refining MAIM: Identifying Changes Required to Meet Conditions for Deterrence

Apr 11, 2025

This blog post discusses deterrence in the context of AI development and the MAIM framework introduced in a recent paper.

Catch-Up Algorithmic Progress Might Actually be 60× per Year

Dec 24, 2025

This technical blog post presents novel analysis indicating that the rate of catch-up algorithmic progress may be much faster than many previously expected.

Announcing: MIRI Technical Governance Team Research Fellowship

Dec 16, 2025

Announcing the 2026 MIRI Technical Governance Team Research Fellowship

Would ASI development in non-party states undermine a nonproliferation agreement?

Nov 25, 2025

This post addresses a common objection to our proposed international agreement to halt ASI development: that some countries would avoid joining the agreement and might pursue ASI themselves or weaken the agreement in other ways.

The Coalition

Nov 24, 2025

This post explains how our recently proposed international AI agreement could be thought of as similar to a defensive military coalition.

Preventing covert ASI development in countries within our agreement

Nov 19, 2025

This post addresses a common objection to our proposed international agreement to halt ASI development: that countries would simply cheat by pursuing covert ASI projects.

Considerations for setting the FLOP thresholds in our example international AI agreement

Nov 18, 2025

This post explains our reasoning for the FLOP thresholds in our proposed international AI agreement.

New Report: An International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of Artificial Superintelligence

Nov 18, 2025

We at the MIRI Technical Governance Team have released a report describing an example international agreement to halt the advancement towards artificial superintelligence. The agreement is centered around limiting the scale of AI training, and restricting certain AI research.

The Hawley-Blumenthal AI Risk Evaluation Act

Policy Comments

Nov 7, 2025

The Artificial Intelligence Risk Evaluation Act is an exciting step toward preventing catastrophic and existential risks from advanced artificial intelligence.

Observations About LLM Inference Pricing

Technical Reports

Mar 3, 2025

A short exploration of inference prices for large language models using publicly available data.